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[80] Sam Nunn, “The Race Between Cooperation and Catastrophe,” The American Academy in Berlin, June 12, 2008, http://www.nti.org/c_press/speech_Nunn_Germany61208.pdf. [74] Donald Rumsfeld, “Rumsfeld’s war-on-terror memo,” USA Today, October 16, 2003. [42] Aaron T. Wolf, “Water and Human Security” AVISO 3 (June 1999). [2] Richard Jackson and Neil Howe, The Graying of the Great Powers: Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century (Washington DC: CSIS, 2008), 12. Authorities are encouraging having children up to 36 months apart while also promoting contraception, a concept which is not widely accepted in the deeply religious country. The first is how its leaders manage to address the instability caused by increased resource pressures on food, water, and energy. [31] Energy shortages continue to be endemic in Pakistan. Although direct U.S. military action on Pakistani territory could prove necessary, the U.S. Government should do more shaping and influencing and less compulsion of friends, adversaries, and those in between. For its part, Pakistan has successfully curbed its fertility rates after decades of effort. America’s ties to Pakistan’s military have given the impression that the United States supports anti­democratic forces instead of the Pakistani people, provoking anti-American sentiment in the country. STEP 2: Reading The Anti Natalist Policies In Bangladesh Harvard Case Study: To have a complete understanding of the case, one should focus on case reading. No partnerships are perfect. Since the 1960s, Pakistan’s population grew at a staggering rate of close to three percent per year. Automobiles, mobile phones, and an independent media have connected Pakistanis to each other and to the rest of the world in revolutionary ways. [55] Total investment reached 23% of GDP in FY2007, and foreign direct investment reached $5.1 billion, or 3.7% of GDP in FY2006. In Lahore, for instance, there are 6,500 sanitation workers for 7.5 million people. In January 2018, the country’s birth rate hit the lowest mark with just 1.69 million babies recorded to be born in 2017. [8] By 2050, some expect the total fertility rate to fall to between 1 and 3 births per woman. In Delhi by comparison, there are 46,000 sanitation workers for 11 million people. [68] The problem for the United States, though, is that efforts to try to help the Pakistani government address curriculum and textbook challenges touch a third rail of sovereignty in Pakistan and is sure to provoke significant backlash. links: '#0066CB' The policy, under which families were fined if they had more than one child, has led to a shortage of young people in the country. The result has been a shifting population demographic away from the classic pyramid model to a more cylindrical shape. [48] This could be particularly damaging to Pakistan’s economic situation given the soaring prices of energy. Much of America’s attention on education in Pakistan has focused on the role of madrassahs. Mao had therefore made the pro-natalist policy, which had caused the population to almost double in size in a period of 20 to 30 years. The Gulf has proved an important source of capital for Pakistan, but it is unclear what sort of political influence the transfer of wealth will have on Pakistan over time. [60] United Nations Development Program, “Human Development Reports,” http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/. [39] Sohail Jehangir Malik, “Agriculture in Pakistan: Challenges and Prospects,” (Pakistan Development Forum: The Demographic Dividend-Unleashing the Human Capital, Jinnah Convention Centre, Islamabad, April 26, 2007). Demographic dividends create the possibility for economic growth by “improving labor supply, increasing savings, and allowing development of human capital.” [13] Pakistan’s median age in 2006 was 20 years. The politics of dam building in Pakistan are extremely complicated though, with each provincial government fearing that they will somehow be shortchanged. In less than a century, the world population tripled from some 2.5 billion in 1950 to over 7.5 billion people in 2018. It is worth noting that General Musharraf’s efforts as the country’s de facto military ruler to move forward with dam construction in Kalabagh met with stiff enough political resistance that he was forced to back down in 2006. This attempt to win hearts and minds is the latest effort to work with local partners to shape an environment in Pakistan unfavorable to al Qaeda and the Taliban. [77] Craig Cohen, “When $10 Billion Isn’t Enough: Rethinking U.S. Strategy and Assistance to Pakistan,” (The Washington Quarterly, MIT Press, Spring 2007); Cohen, A Perilous Course, (Washington DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2007). [40] Naser Faruqui, “Responding to the Water Crisis in Pakistan,” Water Resources Development 20, no. The United States has been more successful with reducing existing arsenals, but in Russia alone there still exist upwards of 10,000 warheads. The current government is now considering relaxing the policy even further. Urban areas were hit particularly hard as food prices increased. Many in Washington believe the United States has not yet found a true partner in Islamabad—civilian or military—willing and able to stand up to the Taliban and al Qaeda in both word and deed. [61] A balance of payment crisis looms in Pakistan, and many fear a return to IMF lending. 1967 – first anti-natalist policy 1979 – pro-natalist 1988 – anti-natalist 2006 – pro-natalist ? [47] Only twenty percent of oil demand is met from indigenous sources. } What country has not used immigration to help counteract an aging population. While its burgeoning growth stresses natural resources, a continuous curb can lead to an ageing and dwindling workforce. The policies of these governments have been pro-natalist and pro-immigration. Population: 202. Madrassahs do not necessarily produce terrorists, but they do play a role in proselytizing an anti-modern, anti-Western world view. [9], Falling fertility rates has meant that Pakistan is presently undergoing a “demographic transition.” Demographic transition explains the shift from the high death rates and high birth rates of a pre-industrial society to the low birth rates and low death rates of industrialized economies. Disclaimer: The population figures for each of the countries is an estimate in millions for 2018. The linkage between madrassahs and terrorism is tenuous, however. IB Hillel Academy 2012. A closer look at Pakistan's demographic challenges raises a number of policy imperatives for Pakistan's government and the United States. China and Singapore adopted anti-natalist policies in response to the high fertility rates during the 1960s. Success is likely to remain elusive though so long as Pakistan and the United States remain on different time horizons. | Suite 640 | Arlington, VA 22209 | phone: 571-970-3187 |. If not, the costs of stirring resentment in Pakistan may not be worth the immediate benefits of action. [68] A. H. Nayyar and Ahmad Salim, Ed., The Subtle Subversion: The state of Curricula and Textbooks in Pakistan: Urdu, English, Social Studies and Civics, (Sustainable Development Policy Institute, 2002): 9­62, 70. The country’s ability to successfully weather this transition period will depend on two primary factors. [32] The price of basic foodstuffs skyrocketed as a result of high energy prices, increased demand from rising middle classes in China and India, the increased production of biofuels, poor weather potentially linked to climate change, and more systemic problems in agricultural production, trade and the delivery of food relief. Recently, there has been an additional worry that despite GDP growth, the country stands at the precipice of a major financial crisis stemming from the economic policies of recent years. By 2003, the number had fallen below 1500, and by 2035, it is projected to fall below 1,000, the baseline that indicates water scarcity. [66] A host of problems plague education in Pakistan: internal mismanagement, poor quality textbooks, ghost schools, shoddy infrastructure, and discrimination. In the most elementary sense, a larger population provides more men to field in battle. There is too much to lose for Washington not to resolve this crisis. version: 2, An Anti-Natalist policy is a protocol that aims to reduce the total birth rate, in order to slow the population growth. [19] If Pakistan fails to adequately train and educate its labor supply and grow its economy to provide jobs, difficult times could be ahead. Electricity production from fossil fuels and nuclear energy requires huge quantities of water for cooling and other purposes, and one-half of Pakistan’s electrical energy is hydro-generated. Al Qaeda has no dedicated recruiting infrastructure in Pakistan, but relies upon this informal network. Even if growth can be sustained, though, investments in health and education remain well-below what is needed to realize Pakistan’s demographic dividend. The difficulty, of course, is that our enemies are also seeking to shape this environment, and often times have proven more successful. Anti-natalist policy - a policy or practice to control the growth of a nations population by imposing limits on childbirth Nigeria It is one of the fastest growing populations in the world, and the most populated country in Africa. The most famous one that has had the greatest impact on the country's demographics is China's "one child policy". The first policy imperative of Pakistan’s demographics is recognizing that as difficult of a challenge Pakistan poses to U.S. decision-makers today, it will likely be magnified in a decade’s time if action is not taken now. interval: 30000, The United States may be the foremost power in the world, but the tools to protect ourselves from tomorrow’s threats do not always lie in our hands. In Oct. 2017, Vietnam revised its policy and now couples are free to have more than two children, and couples with three or more children will not be fined anymore. Policies like this are seen in countries such as China, India or Nigeria, where the population grows at a fast pace. He presented a version of this essay at NPEC's July 2008 workshop symposium, Pakistan"s Nuclear Future: Reining in the Risks. This means producing a workforce that is competitive globally and can help Pakistan diversify from traditional agricultural-based industry like textiles. For its part, many in Islamabad see containing the militants as a viable option and incorporating the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) as a generational task only made more difficult by direct U.S. action. The success of this dividend will depend in large part on the country’s ability to provide young people with the skills they need to succeed in the global marketplace. [12] Simply put, young people require a society’s investments in health and education, working-age adults supply labor that fuels this investment, and the elderly again require investments in health. [56] Pakistan has negotiated trade agreements with China and a number of its neighbors, even if regional trade with India has remained mostly stagnant. A more cylindrical shape pressures from India and Pakistan will have far greater than. 49 ] there is no longer the lone driver of the main challenges to agricultural! Also essential for all other types of energy production economic gains if so, are... Economic growth, roughly a quarter of Pakistan ’ s heightened defense,. The “ demographic dividend ” period increasing agricultural production in Pakistan, ” http: //hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/ urban areas to ageing. Human security ” AVISO 3 ( June 1999 ) to a more cylindrical shape expected. 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